A peek at 2013
It’s nice to be validated, especially by official sources. It means your opinion has worth and kinda makes you want to stick your thumbs in your suspenders and strut a few steps. On the other hand, being able to say;”I told you so!” isn’t always so pleasant. It usually means something unwanted has come to pass. So I have mixed feelings writing this. The report from The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Department is out and I was right about anticipating a larger gain in food prices in 2013 than 2012. Last year they expected a rise of 3% to 4%. This year they’re forecasting price increases of AT LEAST 5%, pending the full effects of the drought, and no reversal in the trend until 2020 at the earliest. So hold onto your hats people, we’re in for a ride. No matter your financial position, you will feel the consequences.
However, the drought isn’t the only thing that could have an unwelcome influence on future food prices. As I wrote several weeks ago, the Farm bill has to be passed before Jan.1st or costs will skyrocket. Unfortunately, it’s part of that large snowball in Washington that’s about to go over the cliff. I understand from my friend who works for the Department of Agriculture that the farmers are most uneasy about it, aside from the deadline and the cliff, because, now, several controversial provisions have been tacked on to it concerning food stamps and school lunches that could, in themselves delay its passing. Without the bill, as I wrote, several experts speculate that milk, for example, could be $6.00 a gallon by June and may well be $10.00 by this time next year. That’s a punch that everyone will feel. Even in the past month, I’ve realized milk was up about .05 cents per half gallon, and my brand of dog food was $3.00 more per bag; two small, yet notable changes and indications of a larger movement to come.
Over the past few years, I’ve noticed that food prices begin to inch up between Christmas and New Years. I guess it eases the transition between the pre-holiday sales and the reality of the fact that the first of the New Year’s permanent hikes are in place by mid-January; a toe in the water, so to speak. Prices seem to stay stable until the major spring holidays and then rise again right after. It’s as if the necessity of holiday buying is a diversion and we shoppers take our eyes off the ball-a slight of hand trick. If we anticipate this movement, we can prepare for it even ease expenses, at least for a few weeks. Still, sooner or later reality sets in and one has to learn to cope with the increased costs.
I had scheduled this posting for a few weeks from now, and will revisit the subject after the first of the New Year, but, in view of the economic situation, I wanted to catch you while the holiday sales are still on. As I’ve often said, I don’t believe In stockpiling. Items tend to get overlooked and expire, but planning ahead, especially if you have specific occasions in mind, is a different story. More importantly, it’s easier to make contingency arrangements for the future if you know a problem is looming on the horizon, when you have some time to work on them.
Here comes my pat on the back. In late September and early October, I wrote several posts on “Facts of Basics”. They were prompted b a friend’s question about using alternate ingredients to lessen the expense of holiday baking. I suggested looking into the cost of using, all or in part, other flours from grains unaffected by the drought, mixing powdered milk for batters, rather than bottled and trying egg substitutes to replace fresh ones for cooking. I also suggested that preparing food for the holidays would be a good time to experiment with these substitutions, to become familiar with ways to use them which were acceptable to your family, in case their prices rose to heights in the future that they became cost effective necessities. In the past few weeks, I’ve heard people from the Department of Agriculture, from Consumer Advisory Groups, Economists and Chefs all advocating the very same measures to deal with the expected rise in food prices in the coming years. I’m pleased that I called the shot so far in advance, and that I gave the correct advice, but I’m not happy that the problem exists due to the drought, and just pray that it won’t be magnified further.
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So please, if you can, give these alternative measures a try. Bear in mind that powdered milk is made from milk, and its price can rise in concert with the liquid, but it has a long shelf life and goes a lot further. Soy milk might also be an option. Right now its price is comparable to that of dairy milk. I don’t know how badly soy beans were affected by the drought, but they are crop and will be affected by the Farm Bill as well. So their future pricing may or may not keep pace with regular milk. It’s worth watching.
It stands to reason, that eggs will be more expensive. The flocks have been culled, so to replenish them, more will, hopefully be kept for breeding and those that do get to market will reflect the increased production costs – feed, gas etc. without even considering the lack of subsidy from the Farm Bill. The answer is to use egg substitutes for cooking and save the real “Hen Fruit” for solo appearances-fried, poached etc. Now by substitutes I don’t mean those products containing real eggs found in the dairy case. They too will reflect the price increases. Go to health food stores to find substitutes used by people with allergies. Trust me, they do a wonderful job in most recipes, even custards, and, like powdered milk, go a long way.
These are just a few of the alternatives I discussed in the series “Facts of Basics” postings, and there’s far too much information to repeat here, but I do suggest you pull them up and see if there are any ideas you can use. Then try to do so before prices go up. Hopefully, you will find some that will make things easier for you.
Just to prove I haven’t completely lost my Holiday Spirit, I’ll be back next week with ideas for festive, affordable, easy desserts!!!
