FOOD COST FORCAST FOR 2015 PLUS EASY COPING TIPS
During my review of the archived blog posts recently, I found this article, and realized that with very few changes it’s as fitting this January as it was when I wrote it in 2012. So I’m including parts of it in quotes with updated comments in italics.
“I don’t know about you, but no matter how much I buy into the holiday spirit of greeting a fresh new year, on January 2nd my mood is always more Monday morning reality check on the work week, than Friday afternoon anticipation of the weekend. This year I felt justified because January 2nd WAS a Monday.” Well this year it WAS a Friday and it still felt like Monday.
Humor aside, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Department reports that
although prices rose substantially in 2012 and 2013, the overall average for 2014 was only 3.4%. They admit that because the price of sugars fell slightly, averaging masks the fact that poultry, dairy, seafood and produce did rise more than expected. However, please remember that sugar prices climbed dramatically in the preceding two years. Beef was in the mix going up 3.4%, but I calculate more. My 2013 prediction was for the price of steak to be at $8.99 by now and it is. Pork prices, due to a hog virus, rose almost 7% by December and are expected to go up another 2% in 2015. The other prices are expected to stay on a stable course for the coming year rising about 3.2%, barring extreme weather events.
“I agree with many people in my industry that those figures are low, but one thing is certain, food prices will rise as much, or more, than last year.” According to my food costs, the figure is nearer to 5% overall. Even using the lower numbers to compote- 3.4% -4%- the total price increase is 17% to 20% over a five year period. That type of figure can have a noticeable financial impact.
Rather than a gradual increase, the pattern has been for prices to hike at intervals, usually following holiday sales, when they should have returned to what was normal, and my supermarket fliers for the first week of the year tell me that hasn’t changed. Even expecting the increases, I gasped, especially at the produce costs. What interests me is that in this, and other departments, especially meat, prices on items that were considered weekday fare have taken the steepest rise, while those on “gourmet” items have been more stable. For example, while prices on imported cheeses haven’t risen much, two years ago sales on cream cheese were 8oz. at 10/$10.00 and the same was the sale price for 16oz. bags of frozen vegetables. Now the cheese is 2/$3.00 and the vegetables are “Steamables” 8-10oz. at 4/$5.00. This week, my flyers show hot dogs are $2.00 per package of 8, and ground turkey hovers around $2.75 per pound, yet the different sized packages of smoked salmon are about the same as last year. The question is: ”How to cope?”
“The first answer is to keep your eye on the ball. Note the cost of your regular purchases and, generally, of products you plan to buy in the next few months, perhaps for occasions. Check some similar brands or products as well, not only for comparison in the future, but also as alternatives should your first choice become a budget buster. For example, iceberg lettuce was always my work horse, for sandwiches, lining plates, regular salads, costing a dollar or less, until about two years ago, when it became a diva. Now, it’s never under $1.25 and as high as $1.99! Romaine, once more expensive, has remained about the same and is now the more economical choice. So be open to change. “ Don’t be afraid to try alternatives. I recently served slivered kale in vinaigrette as a successful salad. The tougher greens, like collard and turnip. slightly wilted, in a nice dressing make good sides and salads. Spinach, heated in a bit of oil and chopped garlic is a classic.
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“The second answer is to study the fliers in advance. A few weeks ago I saw a brand I like on a 10/10 sale, not unusual, but another flier had it listed 4/5, which was higher than the usual price. The following week the price had risen to 4/5 in every store. Fortunately, I caught on and bought a few boxes on the sale. It pays to stay alert.” Don’t overbuy! Get only what you can use in 4-6 weeks or know you’ll need for a special occasion. Chances are there will be one more sale before the price goes up permanently but be aware that those will be items nearer expiration date.
“The third answer is: Know when to quit. I like an ice cream flavor made by one major brand. In July it was $3.00 per ½ gal. or 2/$5.00 on special. Then it went to $3.49 each or 2/$6.00. By November, it was $3.79 per or B.O.G.O. $6.99. Focused on all the holiday goodies, I didn’t check the Ice Cream Section until after Christmas, and had to blink twice–$4.59 a ½ gal. and no 2for sale! Enough! No way am I going to pay nearly $5.00 for ½ gal. of commercial ice cream. I’ll find a new flavor in another brand.” Actually, I gave up ice cream for the rest of the winter. I could buy a box of candy and by pacing myself, make it last longer than the ice cream would. I also began to bake desserts to share. When ice cream prices came down in the spring, I bought it again, but have gone the alternative route each year since.
“The fourth answer is advice I have given repeatedly in this blog and in my menu-cookbook Dinners With Joy “as well as my book How to Control Food Bills. “Get butchers’ diagrams of beef, pork and lamb, showing the different cuts and listing their uses. These offer you economic alternatives as well as advice on prepping and cooking times. A chart of substitute ingredients is also a help. Many regular pantry items can be combined to replace expensive ingredients, different flours, liquors, sauces, for example, in recipes that call for small amounts. This can be a huge money saver.” Both books are available on this web site and the cookbook is sold on Amazon. Keep a watch on your pantry. Don’t clutter it with products you will only use once or twice a year if you can create substitutes or have access to a discount market. Don’t deny the chance to enjoy a favorite recipe or trying a new one, if you can use an alternative cut and achieve the desired taste. I love stroganoff prepared at table using fillet mignon, but I can get a satisfactory fix using left-over roast beef, round slices even minute steaks in the sauce.
“My final bit of advice on coping with the rising food costs is to read my plan for trimming your food expenses outlined in this blog, and implement it.” Even if your budget was adequate in 2014, it will either have to be increased or stretched to fit 2015.My Diet for the Food Dollar Plan as detailed in the book How to Control Food Bills is a good guide. This plan has worked for me professionally and personally, as well as for others who’ve followed it, for ten years. I’m sure it will work for you.
Next I’m going to discuss preplanning as a way of saving both time and expense.
